Showing MBO lead records as recorded, not deduplicated. From Dec 2025 a person is counted again for each studio and each time they sign up again, so 2026 is inflated against earlier years. Months before Dec 2025 are unchanged.
Leads per month, split by whether the studio was established, in its first 3 months after opening, or in presale. From Dec 2025 the numbers come from MBO, deduplicated or as recorded depending on the MBO leads switch.
Leads per month ÷ number of established studios that month (presale and first 3 months left out), one line per year. The studio mix changes as studios open and close.
Leads in each month ÷ the studio's monthly average (1.00 = average month). Established studios with full years in 2023–24; 2025 and 2026 so far are scaled to the same average for those months.
Same index per studio, from its full established years in 2023–24. Red is a weak month, blue a strong one.
Only months where the studio was established in both years.
All studios including new and presale. 2026 is MBO first-time leads, deduplicated.
Each step compares a studio's leads with the same calendar month a year earlier, pooled across studios by age, then chained (year 1 = 100). Hollow points rest on fewer than 5 studios.
Studios opened since mid-2023, each indexed to its months 3–8 after opening (= 100). Before 0 is presale; months 0–2 are the first 3 months.
Jan–Sep, months established in both years.
Jan 2023 – Nov 2025 uses Marianatek lead counts, treated as the real numbers (one lead per person per brand). Dec 2025 onward uses Snowflake's MBO dedup list: first-time unique leads by month, studio and source. MBO repeats lead records for people it already knows and for each studio they sign up at; the dedup list counts each person once, the first time they appear. The ~5% of Marianatek leads that never reached Snowflake is a migration loss of old records only, so no uplift is applied to MBO months.
Opening dates come from the studio Master sheet. Presale months and the first 3 months after opening are left out of seasonality, same-store growth and the cohort. Zilker and Capitol View opening dates are estimated from their lead ramp, and both are left out of 2026 comparisons because they closed. Miramar and Ocean Township had large lead volumes long before their listed opening dates and are left out of the cohort charts. Snowflake merges Zilker into Austin - Highland; in MBO months the combined Austin leads are split between the two by each studio's share of raw lead records.
ClassPass only became a lead source in Marianatek in 2024 and is a much bigger share of MBO records, so "Excl. ClassPass" is the most like-for-like view across years. The cohort uses Marianatek months only; its later age steps rest on few studios and also carry calendar-year effects.